According to the latest economic report from the High Commission for Planning, the increases in the prices of food and non-food products, observed between April and May 2022, have fallen significantly compared to what has been happening since last December. However, the consumer price index remains on the rise with 0.3%. Thus, the core inflation indicator also rose by 1.2% over one month and 5.6% over one year.
Clearly, we are not yet out of inflation. The more we advance in the year, the more we realize, in fact, that what certain experts had predicted, namely that “we will also have to learn to live with inflation, as we did with the Covid-19” checks out! But how long will this situation last? Nobody knows.
Not even Bank Al-Maghrib (BAM), which has just defied public opinion by keeping its key rate unchanged at 1.5%, at least until next September (see page 4, 5 and 6). In the meantime, the economic situation proves the wali of BAM and his team somewhat right: price increases are decreasing somewhat.
According to the latest economic report from the High Commission for Planning (HCP), the increases in the prices of food and non-food products, observed between April and May 2022, have largely declined compared to what has been happening since last December.
The consumer price index (CPI) only increased by 0.3% in May compared to the previous month, while this same indicator rose by 1.8% during of last April, compared to the previous month when it had also experienced an increase in the same level between the third and second months of the year. In other words, the index fell by 1.5 points between April and May, ie at a rate 6 times slower than before. It’s nothing!
Soaring prices of “Oils and fats”
According to the HCP, this change in the CPI, compared to the overheating before, is the result of the rise of 0.6% in the price index of non-food products and the fall of 0.2% that of food prices. The price decreases of the latter, observed between April and May, mainly concern “Vegetables” (-8%), “Fruits” (-6%), “Fish and seafood” (-5.6% ) and “Milk, cheese and eggs” (-0.3%).
On the other hand, prices increased by 8.5% for “Oils and fats”, by 2.3% for “Meat” and by 0.7% for “Bread and cereals”. For non-food products, the increase mainly concerned the prices of “Fuels” with 3%. On the other hand, between March and April, the rise in the CPI resulted from the rise of 3% in the index of food products and 0.9% of that of non-food products.
The rises in the prices of food products concerned, in particular, the prices of “Fruits” with 12.3%, those of “Fish and seafood” (+9.8%), “Oils and fats” (+5 %), “Vegetables” (+2.9%), “Meat” (+1.8%), “Bread and cereals” (+1.4%) and “Coffee, tea and cocoa” ( +0.3%). On the other hand, prices fell by 0.5% for “Milk, cheese and eggs”.
16.2% rise in fuel prices in two months
In other words, over two months, ie between March and May, the food and non-food product indices continued to rise, but at much slower rates. For example, if the index of food products recorded a rise of 3% between March and April, its evolution did not exceed +0.2% between April and May.
This means that the food products, which make up the bulk of the housewife’s basket, have become, in the space of a month, much more accessible. Except for “Oils and fats”, which accumulated a 13.5% increase over the period, which prompted the public authorities to act by suspending the customs duties previously applied to oilseeds (see Les Inspirations Éco No. 3126, page 8); but also “Meat” with an increase of 4.1% over two months and “Bread and cereals” (+2.1%).
If we also take a closer look at the index of non-food products, we see that “Fuels” have accumulated an increase of 16.2% over two months, or +13.2% between March and April and another much weaker by +3% between April and May. In any case, this means that the “Transport” still weighs heavily on the charges. As a result, this upturn in the CPI between April and May is only apparent.
Indeed, compared to the same month of the previous year, the CPI recorded an increase of 5.9% during the month of May 2022, a consequence of the rise in the index of food products by 8.4% and that of non-food products (+4.1%). For non-food products, the variations range from +0.1% for “Communication” and “Health” to +14.0% for “Transport”.
Under these conditions, the core inflation indicator, which excludes products at volatile prices and those at public prices, would have increased by 1.2% in May 2022 compared to April. of the same year and 5.6% compared to May 2021.
Aziz Diouf / ECO Inspirations