Fuels: too much increase?

Fuels: too much increase?

Motorists woke up this Thursday morning with a twinge in their hearts. The liter of diesel, like that of gasoline, jumped about 2 DH. Further increases cannot be ruled out.

It’s total panic at gas stations this Thursday morning. Unleaded has crossed the symbolic bar of 18 DH, at 18.27 DH/l, while a liter of diesel now costs 16.20 DH. An umpteenth increase which is explained by the widening of the significant imbalance between an exploding demand and an offer which is struggling to follow. A little flashback is needed to better understand this situation.

Les Inspirations ÉCO, in its n°3110 of Tuesday May 31, already established a correlation between the arrival of good weather, the strong demand recorded in the United States, in the Gulf countries and in Asian countries, major consumers of super ( due to the summer season which was just around the corner), and the latest increase in the price at the pump of super unleaded. Which had reached 16.80 DH / l on June 1, when it was announced a reduction in the price of a liter of diesel by fifty cents, to an average price of 14.15 DH / l.

An observation that remains valid at the start of the summer season, known to record a very high demand for fuels. As for refineries, overwhelmed by strong demand, they are unable to honor their commitments to the market.

It should be noted that despite demand, which is constantly rising, the latter are struggling to achieve correct margins. Which margins, which have recovered, are around $140/T, contributing in part to the increase in the prices of refined products.

To further complicate the situation, “investors in this sector are reluctant to put their funds in new refineries, believing that, after the crisis, they will find themselves with low margins. Rather than “betting on a bad horse”, they prefer to turn to renewable energies such as solar or wind power”, explained to us, Wednesday, Mostafa Labrak, director general of Energysium.

Indeed, we are witnessing an influx of investments towards renewable energies, to the detriment of new refineries. A paradigm shift inspired by the agreements of the various COPs, leading to compulsory decarbonization towards carbon neutrality by 2050 and pushing investors to opt for the energies of the future (solar, wind, hydraulic) and other biomass, for a production of green hydrogen.

The latter being increasingly perceived as a “true vector of clean and infinitely renewable energy”, estimates the expert. According to him, reinvesting in fossil fuels, which still has a bright future ahead of it but which is unsustainable, will lead to carbon surcharges and therefore an increase in prices.

“So it’s not, in my opinion, a good choice.” On the other hand, he says, “refineries that are in operation should be kept in good condition to respond as much as they can in order to benefit from the increase in their margins”.

Thus, prices should rise further to approach 25 DH/l. “In the first quarter, the value of energy imports represented almost 6% of GDP, up 87% compared to the same period last year.

We expect energy imports to double in price,” expert Olivier Le Cabellec explained to us last May, deciphering an economic study by the Crédit Agricole Group, alongside Isabelle Job-Bazille, Director of group economic studies.

When we know that on March 27, the price of diesel was 13.06 DH for a barrel at 118.72 dollars and that on April 1, it was down to 14.30 DH for 107.74 dollars a barrel, and that at these levels, the Crédit Agricole scenario announced a doubling of the import price, there is cause for serious concern.

Khadim Mbaye / ECO Inspirations

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