GDP stagnation (+0.3%) in the first quarter of 2022 (HCP)

GDP stagnation (+0.3%) in the first quarter of 2022 (HCP)

Driven by domestic demand, this growth was achieved in the context of high inflation and an aggravation of the national economy’s need for financing, comments the High Commission for Planning (HCP) in a note published on Thursday. 30.

Sharp slowdown in economic growth

Added value of the primary sector in volumeseasonally adjusted, contracted by 13.9% in the first quarter of 2022, after registering an increase of 18.7% in the same quarter of the previous year. This drop resulted from the sharp fall in the added values ​​of:

    • agriculture by 14.3% instead of an increase of 19.4%;
    • fishing by 7.3% instead of an increase of 4.5%.

On his side, the added value of the secondary sectorin volume, experienced a decline of 0.9% in the first quarter of 2022 instead of a 1.1% increase in the same quarter of the previous year.

This resulted from the combined effect of the drop in value added:

    • in the extraction industry by 4.8% instead of an increase of 3%;
    • manufacturing industries by 2.4% instead of a drop of 0.8%;

and the increase in those:

    • “Electricity, gas, water, sanitation and waste” by 3.7% instead of 1.4%;
    • construction and public works by 1.8% instead of an increase of 5.7%.

Increase in the added value of services

Otherwise, the added value of the tertiary sector has posted an increase of 4.4% during the first quarter of 2022after a drop of 0.8% during the same period of the previous year.

It was marked by an increase in the activities of:

    • Accommodation and catering, with 25.3% instead of a sharp drop of 27.9%;
    • Transport and warehousing, with 5.7% instead of a decline of 15.5%;
    • Vehicle trade and repair, with 5% instead of 0.5%;
    • Services provided by general public administration and social security, with 4.8% instead of 4.5%;
    • Education, health and social action services, with 4% instead of 2.3%.

And the slowdown of those:

    • financial services and insurance, at 2.1% instead of 2.7%;
    • real estate services, at 1.9% instead of 2.5%.

In total, the added value of non-agricultural activities increased by 2.5%instead of a drop of 0.1% in the same quarter of the previous year.

Under these conditions, and taking into account the 0.2% reduction in taxes on income net of subsidies instead of a 2.4% increase, gross domestic product (GDP) in volume increased by 0.3% during the first quarter of 2022 instead of 2% the previous year.

Inflation rate on the rise

At current prices, GDP rose by 4.3% instead of 3.7% a year earlier, thus generating an increase in the general price level of 4% instead of 1.7%.

A sharp slowdown in domestic demand

Domestic demand posted a marked slowdown, dropping from 6.8% during the same quarter of the previous year to 0.7%, thus contributing 0.8 points to national economic growth, instead of 6, 8 dots.

This is how household final consumption expenditure experienced a slowdown in its growth rate, falling from 6% in the first quarter of 2021 to 1.1%, with a contribution to growth of 0.7 points instead of by 3.5 points.

For its part, the final consumption of general government posted an increase of 5.4% instead of 4.9%, with a contribution to growth of 1 point instead of 0.9 point.

Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) recorded a slowdown to 0.7% instead of 3.3% a year earlier, with a contribution to growth of 0.2 point instead of 0, 9 points during the same quarter of the previous year.

A negative contribution from foreign trade

In terms of foreign trade in goods and services in volume, both exports and imports recorded strong increases during the first quarter of 2022. Thus imports of goods and services increased by 6.8%. instead of 6.2%, with a negative contribution to growth of 2.6 points instead of a negative contribution of 2.1 points, during the same period last year.

For their part, exports increased by 6.6% instead of a drop of 8.2%, with a contribution to growth of 2.1 points instead of a negative contribution of 2.7 points a year. previously.

In this context, foreign trade in goods and services made a negative contribution to growth, standing at 0.5 points instead of a negative contribution of 4.8 points during the first quarter of 2021.

Worsening of the need for financing

With an increase, at current prices, of 4.3% of GDP instead of 3.7% in the first quarter of last year, and a marked slowdown to 4.6% in the growth rate of net income received from the rest of the world instead of 50.2%, the growth of gross national disposable income slowed down from 5.8% in the same period last year to 4.3% in the first quarter of 2022.

Taking into account the 5.1% increase in national final consumption in value instead of 8.2% recorded a year earlier, national savings stood at 25.7% of GDP instead of 26, 3%.

Gross investment (GFCF, change in inventories and net acquisition of valuables) represented 29.8% of GDP instead of 27.5% during the same quarter of the previous year. The financing requirement of the national economy thus worsened compared to the first quarter of 2021, going from 1.2% of GDP to 4.1%.

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