DEPF : De fortes incertitudes persistent sur la relance sectorielle

Strong uncertainties persist on the sectoral recovery

Measures, money, but effects still below those recorded in 2019 in many sectors. This is the message suggested by the recent note on the economic situation from the Department of Studies and Financial Forecasts (DEPF). The travel industry, which is a tertiary sector battered during the Covid crisis, is recovering, but gently.

Cumulatively for the three months of this year, “tourism receipts reached nearly 13.6 billion dirhams, after nearly 4 billion a year earlier and 17 billion in the same period of 2019, marking a recovery rate compared to their pre-crisis level of 79.7%”, according to the DEPF, which explains that “the signs of recovery in the tourism and transport sectors, in particular air transport, are becoming clearer, following the implementation of measures aimed at revitalizing the sector. This recovery would be further strengthened by the easing of travel restrictions, which came into force on May 18, 2022”.

As for tourist arrivals, they more than quadrupled at the end of the first five months of 2022, compared to the same period of the previous year, rising from 501.2 thousand to 2.3 million people. “However, the number of tourist arrivals, at the end of the first five months of 2022, remains down 47.7% compared to its level at the end of May 2019”.

For this year 2022, the World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) forecasts a drop in international tourist arrivals varying between 30% and 45% compared to the levels recorded in 2019, in particular following the evolution of Covid and the pace at which destinations continue to lift travel restrictions as well as changing international conditions.

With regard to the primary sector, the forecast cereal production for the 2021-2022 agricultural campaign is estimated at 32 million quintals, down 69% compared to the previous campaign.

However, this decline is mitigated by the expected improvement in other crops after the last rains, such as fresh fruits and vegetables, the volume of which has increased significantly. The DEPF forecasts a contrasting development for the secondary sector with the maintenance of a positive development in the electrical energy sector (production: +3.6% at the end of April) and a decline in the building and public works sectors. (cement sales: -3.1% at the end of May), manufacturing (-2.3% at the end of March) and extractives (-10.1% at the end of March).

Decline in the manufacturing sector production index

In the same line, in the first quarter of 2022, the production index of the manufacturing sector recorded a decline of 2.3% year-on-year, after an increase of 0.9% a year earlier, we read in the said note. conjuncture.

And to explain this downward trend by those of the production index of the chemical industry by 8.6%, the food industry by 1.3% and that of the manufacture of electrical equipment by 3.4%, before attributing this result to the decline in the manufacture of rubber and plastic products by 3.2%, the automotive industry by 2.6%, the clothing industry by 1 .6% and the textile industry by 2.3%.

“Finally, this decline is mitigated by a positive performance recorded at the level of the pharmaceutical industry (+9.9%), metallurgy (+1.5%), furniture manufacturing (+5%) and the manufacture of beverages (+0.9%)”, we list.

The international environment finds no alibi

The economic outlook is less favourable, in a context marked by more aggressive monetary tightening to fight inflation, according to the same source.

With this in mind, the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) now forecasts world GDP growth limited to 3% in 2022 against 4.5% initially expected in December, notes the DEPF.

Growth prospects have deteriorated for the main economies, including those of the United States (2.5% against 3.7%), the euro zone (2.6% against 4.3%), Japan (1, 7% against 3.4%) and China (4.4% against 5.1%). The global economy continues to face strong uncertainties, related to the war in Ukraine, the pandemic, supply chains, inflationary dynamics and financial conditions.

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