Here is the essence of Bank Al-Maghrib’s (BAM) report on monetary policy, published at the end of the 2nd quarterly meeting of its Board for the year 2022:
– After the rebound recorded in 2021, the global economy is facing headwinds and its outlook is surrounded by high uncertainties.
– On the labor markets, the situation remained favorable in most advanced countries. Indeed, the unemployment rate stabilized in May at 3.6% in the United States, with however job creations falling to 390,000 jobs against 436,000 the previous month. Similarly, this rate stagnated at 6.8% in April in the euro zone.
– In financial markets, conditions tightened further during the month of May in response to growing concerns about accelerating inflation, decelerating economic momentum and anticipation of further tightening monetary policies in advanced countries.
– In the foreign exchange markets, the euro strengthened in May by 2.4% against the dollar, 1.4% against the pound sterling and 0.4% against the Japanese yen .
– In terms of commodity markets, the price of Brent resumed in May 2022, marking an increase, month on month, of 6.2% to 112.37 dollars per barrel, and also falling up 65.2% year-on-year. – At the national level, the national accounts data compiled according to the new 2014 base show a rebound of the economy of 7.9% in 2021 after a contraction of 7.2% in 2020. – On the labor market, the The situation was marked in the first quarter of 2022 by a loss of 58 thousand jobs, after that of 202 thousand a year earlier.
– Foreign trade data at the end of April 2022 indicate an increase in the trade deficit of 27.6 billion dirhams (MMDH) to settle at 91 billion MAD. Exports grew by 34.2% less than that of 37.8% for imports, and the coverage rate fell from 62% to 60.4%.
– BAM’s official reserve assets (AOR) stood at 329.2 billion dirhams at the end of April 2022, representing the equivalent of 5 months and 27 days of imports of goods and services. – A reduction in the liquidity needs of banks to 64.6 billion dirhams, due in particular to the increase in foreign exchange reserves.
– The budgetary exercise for the first five months of 2022 ended with a deficit of 14 billion dirhams, a reduction of 11 billion dirhams compared to the same period in 2021.
– real estate prices fell slightly by 0.3% quarter on quarter in the first quarter of 2022, covering respective decreases of 2.5% and 0.3% for goods for professional use and residential, and a stagnation for land.
– Inflation picked up significantly in April to reach its highest level since October 1995, ie 5.9% after an average of 4% during the first quarter of the year.
– Global economic growth is expected to slow from 6.1% in 2021 to 2.9% in 2022 and then to 2.6% in 2023.
– On the commodity markets, the prices of energy products should maintain their upward trend due to the conflict in Ukraine and the measures against Russian exports. The price of Brent is expected to increase to $107 per barrel on average in 2022 after $70.4 in 2021, before falling to $93.9 in 2023.
– Inflation should continue its upward trend in both advanced and emerging countries. In the United States, after a rate of 4.7% in 2021, it should stand at 7.8% on average over the year as a whole.
– At the national level, exports should increase by 22%, then increase by 0.8% in 2023, driven mainly by shipments of phosphate and derivatives which would rebound by 43.4% to 115.1 billion dirhams, in linked to the expected rise in prices, before falling to 10.8% in 2023 to 102.7 billion dirhams.
– The AOR would be 342.5 billion dirhams at the end of 2022 and 346.4 billion dirhams at the end of 2023, i.e. the equivalent of more than 6 months of imports of goods and services.
– After standing at 5.9% of GDP in 2021, the budget deficit, excluding privatization, should stand at 6.3% of GDP in 2022 before easing to 5.6% of GDP in 2023 .
– The growth of the national economy would slow to 1% in 2022, before posting an acceleration of 4% in 2023.
– Inflation should accelerate from 1.4% in 2021 to 5.3% in 2022, driven mainly by the rise in its underlying component.
– The balance of risks emerges on the downside for growth and on the upside for inflation.